*Interaction models

*Regression with standard errors clustered by security minister - 12-month, 3-month and 6-month windows 

*12 months 
 regress Expulsions Reformist2 Election_Win_12mo_inc Election_12mo_inc Honeymoon_YR Second_Term Gov_year Months_Office Scandal HomicideTrend System ReformistElectionWin12months, vce(cluster SecurityMinister) 
estimates store m1, title(Model1)
regress Expulsions Reformist2 Election_Win_12mo_inc Election_12mo_inc Honeymoon_YR Second_Term Gov_year Months_Office  Scandal HomicideTrend System ReformistElection12Months, vce(cluster SecurityMinister) 
estimates store m2, title(Model2)
regress Expulsions Reformist2 Election_Win_12mo_inc Election_12mo_inc Honeymoon_YR  Second_Term Gov_year Months_Office Scandal HomicideTrend System ReformistHoneymoon12months, vce(cluster SecurityMinister)
estimates store m3, title(Model3)
*3 months  
regress Expulsions Reformist2 Election_Win_3mo_inc Election_3mo_inc Honeymoon_3M Second_Term Gov_year Months_Office Scandal HomicideTrend System ReformistWin3months, vce(cluster SecurityMinister)
estimates store m4, title(Model4)
regress Expulsions Reformist2 Election_Win_3mo_inc Election_3mo_inc Honeymoon_3M Second_Term Gov_year Months_Office  Scandal HomicideTrend System ReformistElection3months, vce(cluster SecurityMinister)
estimates store m5, title(Model5)
regress Expulsions Reformist2 Election_Win_3mo_inc Election_3mo_inc Honeymoon_3M  Second_Term Gov_year Months_Office Scandal HomicideTrend System ReformistHoneymoon3months, vce(cluster SecurityMinister) 
estimates store m6, title(Model6)
*6-month window 
regress Expulsions Reformist2 Election_Win_6M_inc Election_6mo_inc Honeymoon_6M Second_Term Gov_year Months_Office Scandal HomicideTrend System ReformistElectionWin6months, vce(cluster SecurityMinister) 
estimates store m7, title(Model7)
regress Expulsions Reformist2 Election_Win_6M_inc Election_6mo_inc Honeymoon_6M Second_Term Gov_year Months_Office  Scandal HomicideTrend System ReformistElection6months, vce(cluster SecurityMinister) 
estimates store m8, title(Model8)
regress Expulsions Reformist2 Election_Win_6M_inc Election_6mo_inc Honeymoon_6M  Second_Term Gov_year Months_Office Scandal HomicideTrend System ReformistHoneymoon6months, vce(cluster SecurityMinister) 
estimates store m9, title(Model9)
estimates table m1 m2 m3 m4 m5 m6 m7 m8 m9,  star b(%7.2f) stats(N r2_a) varlabel style(columns)

*Marginal effects models with standard clustered errors by security minister 
*6-months 

*12-months 

*1) Election Win (recode Election win variable)
regress Expulsions i.Reformist2 Honeymoon_YR Election_12mo_inc i.Election_Win_12mo_rec Second_Term Gov_year Months_Office Scandal HomicideTrend System i.Reformist2#i.Election_Win_12mo_rec, vce(cluster SecurityMinister) 
estimates store m1, title(Model3)
margins i.Reformist2#i.Election_Win_12mo_rec
marginsplot

*2) Election year 
regress Expulsions i.Reformist2 Honeymoon_YR i.Election_12mo_inc Election_Win_12mo_rec Second_Term Gov_year Months_Office Scandal HomicideTrend System i.Reformist2#i.Election_12mo_inc, vce(cluster SecurityMinister) 
estimates store m2, title(Model2)
margins i.Reformist2#i.Election_12mo_inc
marginsplot

*3) Honeymoon 
regress Expulsions i.Reformist2 i.Honeymoon_YR Election_12mo_inc Election_Win_12mo_rec Second_Term Gov_year Months_Office Scandal HomicideTrend System i.Reformist2#i.Honeymoon_YR, vce(cluster SecurityMinister) 
estimates store m3, title(Model3)
margins i.Reformist2#i.Honeymoon_YR
marginsplot

*3-month window 
*4) Election Win (recode election win variable)
regress Expulsions i.Reformist2 Honeymoon_3M Election_3mo_inc i.Election_Win_3mo_rec Second_Term Gov_year Months_Office Scandal HomicideTrend System i.Reformist2#i.Election_Win_3mo_rec, vce(cluster SecurityMinister) 
estimates store m4, title(Model4)
margins i.Reformist2#i.Election_Win_3mo_rec
marginsplot

*5) Electoral Period 
regress Expulsions i.Reformist2 Honeymoon_3M i.Election_3mo_inc Election_Win_3mo_rec Second_Term Gov_year Months_Office Scandal HomicideTrend System i.Reformist2#i.Election_3mo_inc, vce(cluster SecurityMinister) 
estimates store m5, title(Model5)
margins i.Reformist2#i.Election_3mo_inc
marginsplot

*6) Honeymoon  
regress Expulsions i.Reformist2 i.Honeymoon_3M Election_3mo_inc Election_Win_3mo_rec Second_Term Gov_year Months_Office Scandal HomicideTrend System i.Reformist2#i.Honeymoon_3M, vce(cluster SecurityMinister) 
estimates store m6, title(Model6)
margins i.Reformist2#i.Honeymoon_3M
marginsplot


*6-month window 

*7) Election Win (recoded election win variable)
regress Expulsions i.Reformist2 i.Election_Win_6mo_rec Election_6mo_inc Honeymoon_6M Second_Term Gov_year Months_Office Scandal HomicideTrend System i.Reformist2#i.Election_Win_6mo_rec, vce(cluster SecurityMinister) 
estimates store m7, title(Model7)
margins i.Reformist2#i.Election_Win_6mo_rec
marginsplot

*8) Electoral period 
regress Expulsions i.Reformist2 Election_Win_6mo_rec i.Election_6mo_inc Honeymoon_6M Second_Term Gov_year Months_Office Scandal HomicideTrend System i.Reformist2#i.Election_6mo_inc, vce(cluster SecurityMinister) 
estimates store m8, title(Model8)
margins i.Reformist2#i.Election_6mo_inc
marginsplot

*9) Honeymoon
regress Expulsions i.Reformist2 Election_Win_6mo_rec Election_6mo_inc i.Honeymoon_6M Second_Term Gov_year Months_Office Scandal HomicideTrend System i.Reformist2#i.Honeymoon_6M, vce(cluster SecurityMinister) 
estimates store m9, title(Model9)
margins i.Reformist2#i.Honeymoon_6M
marginsplot


estimates table m1 m2 m3 m4 m5 m6 m7 m8 m9,  star b(%7.2f) stats(N r2_a) varlabel style(columns)

